Data Exploration

We’ll look at how much the scoring systems for FanDuel and DraftKings differ from our projections scrape.

It seems that WRs certainly get a point boost from being on DraftKings, which makes sense as DraftKings is full PPR and includes 100+ yard game bonuses. The difference gets slimmer when we look at RB (specifically in the higher tiers) and even more so when looking at QBs.

As we can see, there is some variation near the top, but overall the data is relatively clustered with no large outliers. We see a wide variation in QBs, WRs, and RBs which is to be expected- since there are so many rostered at each position. Now, let’s look at FanDuel and DraftKings separately to see if there are any plays that we can exploit.

In FanDuel cash games, 130 points is an arbitrary number that seems to win you 90% of the time. Thus, any point above this line are our “value” plays. They are projected to get over 2.2x value. However, studs are still studs. This line should help decided what lower tiered players to play, or maybe if there’s a debate between two solid plays. As we get to lower salaries, however, there are less “value” plays. And this makes sense. DFS is about finding these low-priced values in order to be able to rightfully pay up for studs. Additionally, very rarely will we see any DST above this “value” threshold. This is why paying up for defenses doesn’t make sense in the majority of scenarios; rather we should look for defenses that will provide us with the most points per dollar. Again, this frees up money to pay for our more expensive players.

As per DKNation, we should target 125 points, putting us generally in the top 45% needed to win cash games. With DraftKings, we see a modest increase in the amount of value plays, as we see DST closer to our value threshold, as well as more middle-tiered players. Again, we’ll make sure to pay up for studs, but we can see what value plays are out there.

Stacks

We can see how player are projected to do, but that doesn’t help us outright with DFS. Often times, we want to create stacks, where we combine a team’s QB and receiving options (WRs and TEs), so we can correlate our scores. We’ll look at stacking the top receiver and their QB, along with the top two and three with their pass-thrower.

FanDuel

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
34.05550 14800 2.301 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.68800 7700 Will Fuller 12.367500 7100
30.85475 13600 2.269 NE Cam Newton 19.42300 7600 Jakobi Meyers 11.431750 6000
37.36091 16500 2.264 LAC Justin Herbert 21.96010 8500 Keenan Allen 15.400810 8000
33.42152 14900 2.243 BAL Lamar Jackson 22.65470 8400 Mark Andrews 10.766821 6500
31.10283 13900 2.238 WAS Alex Smith 16.89300 6600 Terry McLaurin 14.209828 7300
32.20210 14500 2.221 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 20.01550 8000 JuJu Smith-Schuster 12.186604 6500
28.33600 12900 2.197 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 17.37050 6700 DeVante Parker 10.965500 6200
33.59637 15900 2.113 ATL Matt Ryan 18.57335 7800 Julio Jones 15.023020 8100
30.06745 14300 2.103 CIN Joe Burrow 18.44820 7700 Tyler Boyd 11.619250 6600
25.58480 12500 2.047 DEN Drew Lock 14.89080 6800 Jerry Jeudy 10.694000 5700
28.85745 14200 2.032 PHI Carson Wentz 17.87245 7400 Travis Fulgham 10.985000 6800
29.76379 14800 2.011 TEN Ryan Tannehill 16.98025 7300 A.J. Brown 12.783545 7500
25.88875 12900 2.007 CLE Baker Mayfield 15.61000 7000 Jarvis Landry 10.278750 5900
27.52430 13800 1.995 DAL Andy Dalton 15.92655 6900 Amari Cooper 11.597750 6900
29.81710 15000 1.988 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.21285 7100 Adam Thielen 13.604250 7900
25.13840 12700 1.979 NYJ Joe Flacco 13.49540 6100 Jamison Crowder 11.643000 6600
26.55656 13500 1.967 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 15.25500 7200 Robby Anderson 11.301564 6300
35.82700 18500 1.937 GB Aaron Rodgers 19.34300 9000 Davante Adams 16.484004 9500
25.83611 13500 1.914 DET Matthew Stafford 17.46275 7500 T.J. Hockenson 8.373356 6000
13.98800 11400 1.227 JAX Jake Luton 7.64800 6500 Chris Conley 6.340000 4900
17.84579 15400 1.159 NO Jameis Winston 5.05100 7200 Michael Thomas 12.794791 8200
9.37825 11400 0.823 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.52000 6000 T.Y. Hilton 7.858250 5400

Stack 2

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
66.88025 28600 2.338 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.68800 7700 Will Fuller 12.367500 7100
Brandin Cooks 11.136750 6100
70.00901 30900 2.266 LAC Justin Herbert 21.96010 8500 Keenan Allen 15.400810 8000
Mike Williams 10.688000 5900
65.67397 29200 2.249 BAL Lamar Jackson 22.65470 8400 Mark Andrews 10.766821 6500
Marquise Brown 9.597750 5900
63.93810 28900 2.212 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 20.01550 8000 JuJu Smith-Schuster 12.186604 6500
Diontae Johnson 11.720500 6400
53.09225 24200 2.194 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 17.37050 6700 DeVante Parker 10.965500 6200
Jakeem Grant 7.385750 4600
54.77081 25700 2.131 WAS Alex Smith 16.89300 6600 Terry McLaurin 14.209828 7300
Logan Thomas 6.774984 5200
55.72325 26500 2.103 NE Cam Newton 19.42300 7600 Jakobi Meyers 11.431750 6000
N’Keal Harry 5.445500 5300
59.90865 28500 2.102 CIN Joe Burrow 18.44820 7700 Tyler Boyd 11.619250 6600
Tee Higgins 11.393000 6500
65.19494 31500 2.070 ATL Matt Ryan 18.57335 7800 Julio Jones 15.023020 8100
Calvin Ridley 13.025225 7800
55.27615 27200 2.032 PHI Carson Wentz 17.87245 7400 Travis Fulgham 10.985000 6800
Jalen Reagor 8.546250 5600
57.77720 28800 2.006 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.21285 7100 Adam Thielen 13.604250 7900
Justin Jefferson 11.747250 6700
53.05860 26500 2.002 DAL Andy Dalton 15.92655 6900 Amari Cooper 11.597750 6900
CeeDee Lamb 9.607750 5800
55.48880 28000 1.982 TEN Ryan Tannehill 16.98025 7300 A.J. Brown 12.783545 7500
Corey Davis 8.744750 5900
49.22775 25000 1.969 CLE Baker Mayfield 15.61000 7000 Jarvis Landry 10.278750 5900
Austin Hooper 7.729000 5100
48.81135 24800 1.968 DEN Drew Lock 14.89080 6800 Jerry Jeudy 10.694000 5700
Tim Patrick 8.335750 5500
51.53506 26300 1.960 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 15.25500 7200 Robby Anderson 11.301564 6300
Curtis Samuel 9.723500 5600
50.29886 25700 1.957 DET Matthew Stafford 17.46275 7500 T.J. Hockenson 8.373356 6000
Quintez Cephus 7.000000 4700
46.53555 24200 1.923 NYJ Joe Flacco 13.49540 6100 Jamison Crowder 11.643000 6600
Denzel Mims 7.901750 5400
62.45775 33300 1.876 GB Aaron Rodgers 19.34300 9000 Davante Adams 16.484004 9500
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 7.287750 5800
25.95975 22500 1.154 JAX Jake Luton 7.64800 6500 Chris Conley 6.340000 4900
Tyler Eifert 4.323750 4600
30.60929 28200 1.085 NO Jameis Winston 5.05100 7200 Michael Thomas 12.794791 8200
Emmanuel Sanders 7.712500 5600
17.70400 22700 0.780 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.52000 6000 T.Y. Hilton 7.858250 5400
Zach Pascal 6.805750 5300

Stack 3

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
96.56050 41400 2.332 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.68800 7700 Will Fuller 12.367500 7100
Brandin Cooks 11.136750 6100
Randall Cobb 7.992250 5100
100.63661 44900 2.241 LAC Justin Herbert 21.96010 8500 Keenan Allen 15.400810 8000
Mike Williams 10.688000 5900
Hunter Henry 8.667500 5500
95.58135 43300 2.207 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 20.01550 8000 JuJu Smith-Schuster 12.186604 6500
Diontae Johnson 11.720500 6400
Chase Claypool 11.627750 6400
92.11717 42400 2.173 BAL Lamar Jackson 22.65470 8400 Mark Andrews 10.766821 6500
Marquise Brown 9.597750 5900
Miles Boykin 3.788500 4800
77.44552 36200 2.139 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 17.37050 6700 DeVante Parker 10.965500 6200
Jakeem Grant 7.385750 4600
Mike Gesicki 6.982773 5300
85.83485 41700 2.058 CIN Joe Burrow 18.44820 7700 Tyler Boyd 11.619250 6600
Tee Higgins 11.393000 6500
A.J. Green 7.478000 5500
91.54293 44800 2.043 ATL Matt Ryan 18.57335 7800 Julio Jones 15.023020 8100
Calvin Ridley 13.025225 7800
Hayden Hurst 7.774640 5500
80.47400 39400 2.042 NE Cam Newton 19.42300 7600 Jakobi Meyers 11.431750 6000
N’Keal Harry 5.445500 5300
Damiere Byrd 5.327750 5300
75.69881 37300 2.029 WAS Alex Smith 16.89300 6600 Terry McLaurin 14.209828 7300
Logan Thomas 6.774984 5200
Cam Sims 4.035000 5000
81.08497 40400 2.007 PHI Carson Wentz 17.87245 7400 Travis Fulgham 10.985000 6800
Jalen Reagor 8.546250 5600
Dallas Goedert 7.936367 5800
77.32090 38800 1.993 DAL Andy Dalton 15.92655 6900 Amari Cooper 11.597750 6900
CeeDee Lamb 9.607750 5800
Michael Gallup 8.335750 5400
80.20444 41100 1.951 TEN Ryan Tannehill 16.98025 7300 A.J. Brown 12.783545 7500
Corey Davis 8.744750 5900
Jonnu Smith 7.735390 5800
78.59480 40400 1.945 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.21285 7100 Adam Thielen 13.604250 7900
Justin Jefferson 11.747250 6700
Kyle Rudolph 4.604750 4500
71.96225 37400 1.924 CLE Baker Mayfield 15.61000 7000 Jarvis Landry 10.278750 5900
Austin Hooper 7.729000 5100
Rashard Higgins 7.124500 5400
73.60886 38300 1.922 DET Matthew Stafford 17.46275 7500 T.J. Hockenson 8.373356 6000
Quintez Cephus 7.000000 4700
Marvin Hall 5.847250 5100
71.54824 37300 1.918 DEN Drew Lock 14.89080 6800 Jerry Jeudy 10.694000 5700
Tim Patrick 8.335750 5500
Noah Fant 7.846088 5700
67.73045 36000 1.881 NYJ Joe Flacco 13.49540 6100 Jamison Crowder 11.643000 6600
Denzel Mims 7.901750 5400
Breshad Perriman 7.699500 5700
70.54981 38000 1.857 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 15.25500 7200 Robby Anderson 11.301564 6300
Curtis Samuel 9.723500 5600
Ian Thomas 3.759750 4500
88.67375 47800 1.855 GB Aaron Rodgers 19.34300 9000 Davante Adams 16.484004 9500
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 7.287750 5800
Allen Lazard 6.873000 5500
34.60775 33000 1.049 JAX Jake Luton 7.64800 6500 Chris Conley 6.340000 4900
Tyler Eifert 4.323750 4600
Tyler Davis 1.000000 4000
41.31354 41500 0.996 NO Jameis Winston 5.05100 7200 Michael Thomas 12.794791 8200
Emmanuel Sanders 7.712500 5600
Jared Cook 5.653250 6100
25.25825 33900 0.745 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.52000 6000 T.Y. Hilton 7.858250 5400
Zach Pascal 6.805750 5300
Trey Burton 6.034250 5200

DraftKings

Stack 1

We’ll first look at a QB and top receiver stack:
Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
33.54725 11100 3.022 NE Cam Newton 19.52300 6200 Jakobi Meyers 14.02425 4900
33.28870 2.999 CIN Joe Burrow 18.74820 5500 Tyler Boyd 14.54050 5600
36.00584 12200 2.951 BAL Lamar Jackson 23.00470 7300 Mark Andrews 13.00114 4900
41.22122 14200 2.903 LAC Justin Herbert 22.11010 6800 Keenan Allen 19.11112 7400
36.58925 12700 2.881 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.78050 6500 Will Fuller 14.80875 6200
30.52555 10700 2.853 DAL Andy Dalton 16.12655 5300 Amari Cooper 14.39900 5400
34.30466 12200 2.812 WAS Alex Smith 17.04300 Terry McLaurin 17.26166 6900
31.45745 11300 2.784 PHI Carson Wentz 18.17245 5700 Travis Fulgham 13.28500 5600
27.92596 10200 2.738 DET Matthew Stafford 17.63775 6000 T.J. Hockenson 10.28821 4200
35.16571 13100 2.684 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 20.09050 6700 JuJu Smith-Schuster 15.07521 6400
36.97089 13800 2.679 ATL Matt Ryan 18.77335 6300 Julio Jones 18.19754 7500
30.73600 11500 2.673 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 17.52050 5800 DeVante Parker 13.21550 5700
27.88980 10700 2.607 DEN Drew Lock 14.99080 5400 Jerry Jeudy 12.89900 5300
32.57335 12500 2.606 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.36285 6200 Adam Thielen 16.21050 6300
28.22250 10900 2.589 CLE Baker Mayfield 15.68000 5400 Jarvis Landry 12.54250 5500
39.74726 15600 2.548 GB Aaron Rodgers 19.46800 7000 Davante Adams 20.27926 8600
28.11090 11100 2.533 NYJ Joe Flacco 13.57540 5000 Jamison Crowder 14.53550 6100
32.39234 13300 2.436 TEN Ryan Tannehill 17.13025 6100 A.J. Brown 15.26209 7200
29.54638 12400 2.383 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 15.35500 6400 Robby Anderson 14.19138 6000
15.73675 8000 1.967 JAX Jake Luton 7.89800 5000 Chris Conley 7.83875 3000
20.96333 13200 1.588 NO Jameis Winston 5.10100 5900 Michael Thomas 15.86233 7300
11.34325 8300 1.367 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.57000 4100 T.Y. Hilton 9.77325 4200

Stack 2

Now, the top two receivers and their QB:

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
71.92150 24400 2.948 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.78050 6500 Will Fuller 14.808750 6200
Brandin Cooks 13.551750 5200
65.98615 22500 2.933 CIN Joe Burrow 18.74820 5500 Tyler Boyd 14.540500 5600
Tee Higgins 13.949250 5900
75.91682 26100 2.909 LAC Justin Herbert 22.11010 6800 Keenan Allen 19.111120 7400
Mike Williams 12.585500 5100
59.71862 20800 2.871 WAS Alex Smith 17.04300 5300 Terry McLaurin 17.261656 6900
Logan Thomas 8.370968 3300
59.96825 20900 2.869 NE Cam Newton 19.52300 6200 Jakobi Meyers 14.024250 4900
N’Keal Harry 6.898000 3600
60.15490 21300 2.824 PHI Carson Wentz 18.17245 5700 Travis Fulgham 13.285000 5600
Jalen Reagor 10.525000 4300
53.86371 19200 2.805 DET Matthew Stafford 17.63775 6000 T.J. Hockenson 10.288211 4200
Quintez Cephus 8.300000 3000
70.69954 25300 2.794 BAL Lamar Jackson 23.00470 7300 Mark Andrews 13.001142 4900
Marquise Brown 11.689000 5800
58.56235 21000 2.789 DAL Andy Dalton 16.12655 5300 Amari Cooper 14.399000 5400
CeeDee Lamb 11.910250 5000
57.46475 20800 2.763 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 17.52050 5800 DeVante Parker 13.215500 5700
Jakeem Grant 9.208250 3500
69.66921 25700 2.711 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 20.09050 6700 JuJu Smith-Schuster 15.075208 6400
Diontae Johnson 14.413000 5900
51.61305 19400 2.660 NYJ Joe Flacco 13.57540 5000 Jamison Crowder 14.535500 6100
Denzel Mims 9.926750 3300
53.71275 20200 2.659 CLE Baker Mayfield 15.68000 5400 Jarvis Landry 12.542500 5500
Austin Hooper 9.810250 3900
71.40194 27100 2.635 ATL Matt Ryan 18.77335 6300 Julio Jones 18.197539 7500
Calvin Ridley 15.657700 7000
62.92220 24700 2.547 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.36285 6200 Adam Thielen 16.210500 6300
Justin Jefferson 13.986000 6000
53.10760 20900 2.541 DEN Drew Lock 14.99080 5400 Jerry Jeudy 12.899000 5300
Tim Patrick 10.227000 4800
60.28484 24200 2.491 TEN Ryan Tannehill 17.13025 6100 A.J. Brown 15.262090 7200
Corey Davis 10.762250 4800
68.02301 27400 2.483 GB Aaron Rodgers 19.46800 7000 Davante Adams 20.279257 8600
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 8.807750 4800
56.56738 23500 2.407 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 15.35500 6400 Robby Anderson 14.191379 6000
Curtis Samuel 11.666000 4700
29.14475 15700 1.856 JAX Jake Luton 7.89800 5000 Chris Conley 7.838750 3000
Tyler Eifert 5.510000 2700
35.54058 24000 1.481 NO Jameis Winston 5.10100 5900 Michael Thomas 15.862332 7300
Emmanuel Sanders 9.476250 4900
21.28650 16800 1.267 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.57000 4100 T.Y. Hilton 9.773250 4200
Zach Pascal 8.373250 4400

Stack 3

And finally, our most correlated stack. Often times, we would want to run this back with a receiver on the opposing team, but we’ll deal with that later.

Total Salary Value Team qb_name qb_pts qb_sal receiver_name receiver_pts receiver_sal
103.57800 34500 3.002 HOU Deshaun Watson 21.78050 6500 Will Fuller 14.808750 6200
Brandin Cooks 13.551750 5200
Randall Cobb 9.876000 3600
94.05985 31600 2.977 CIN Joe Burrow 18.74820 5500 Tyler Boyd 14.540500 5600
Tee Higgins 13.949250 5900
A.J. Green 9.325500 3600
108.81192 37500 2.902 LAC Justin Herbert 22.11010 6800 Keenan Allen 19.111120 7400
Mike Williams 12.585500 5100
Hunter Henry 10.785000 4600
88.29008 30800 2.867 PHI Carson Wentz 18.17245 5700 Travis Fulgham 13.285000 5600
Jalen Reagor 10.525000 4300
Dallas Goedert 9.962733 3800
84.81215 30000 2.827 DAL Andy Dalton 16.12655 5300 Amari Cooper 14.399000 5400
CeeDee Lamb 11.910250 5000
Michael Gallup 10.123250 3700
86.15900 30600 2.816 NE Cam Newton 19.52300 6200 Jakobi Meyers 14.024250 4900
N’Keal Harry 6.898000 3600
Damiere Byrd 6.667750 3500
81.70662 29400 2.779 WAS Alex Smith 17.04300 5300 Terry McLaurin 17.261656 6900
Logan Thomas 8.370968 3300
Cam Sims 4.945000 3300
98.30024 35600 2.761 BAL Lamar Jackson 23.00470 7300 Mark Andrews 13.001142 4900
Marquise Brown 11.689000 5800
Miles Boykin 4.596000 3000
83.72830 30900 2.710 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 17.52050 5800 DeVante Parker 13.215500 5700
Jakeem Grant 9.208250 3500
Mike Gesicki 8.743046 4300
78.46496 29000 2.706 DET Matthew Stafford 17.63775 6000 T.J. Hockenson 10.288211 4200
Quintez Cephus 8.300000 3000
Marvin Hall 6.963500 3800
103.64496 38500 2.692 PIT Ben Roethlisberger 20.09050 6700 JuJu Smith-Schuster 15.075208 6400
Diontae Johnson 14.413000 5900
Chase Claypool 13.885250 6100
99.89932 37800 2.643 ATL Matt Ryan 18.77335 6300 Julio Jones 18.197539 7500
Calvin Ridley 15.657700 7000
Hayden Hurst 9.724030 4400
74.50545 28700 2.596 NYJ Joe Flacco 13.57540 5000 Jamison Crowder 14.535500 6100
Denzel Mims 9.926750 3300
Breshad Perriman 9.317000 4300
78.07725 30100 2.594 CLE Baker Mayfield 15.68000 5400 Jarvis Landry 12.542500 5500
Austin Hooper 9.810250 3900
Rashard Higgins 8.684500 4500
77.93608 30800 2.530 DEN Drew Lock 14.99080 Jerry Jeudy 12.899000 5300
Tim Patrick 10.227000 4800
Noah Fant 9.837676 4500
85.04230 34100 2.494 MIN Kirk Cousins 16.36285 6200 Adam Thielen 16.210500 6300
Justin Jefferson 13.986000 6000
Kyle Rudolph 5.757250 3200
86.91570 35000 2.483 TEN Ryan Tannehill 17.13025 6100 A.J. Brown 15.262090 7200
Corey Davis 10.762250 4800
Jonnu Smith 9.500609 4700
95.87401 39000 2.458 GB Aaron Rodgers 19.46800 7000 Davante Adams 20.279257 8600
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 8.807750 4800
Allen Lazard 8.383000 4600
76.72963 32400 2.368 CAR Teddy Bridgewater 15.35500 6400 Robby Anderson 14.191379 6000
Curtis Samuel 11.666000 4700
Ian Thomas 4.807250 2500
38.44275 23200 1.657 JAX Jake Luton 7.89800 5000 Chris Conley 7.838750 3000
Tyler Eifert 5.510000 2700
Tyler Davis 1.400000 2500
47.51858 34000 1.398 NO Jameis Winston 5.10100 5900 Michael Thomas 15.862332 7300
Emmanuel Sanders 9.476250 4900
Jared Cook 6.877000 4100
30.30825 24000 1.263 IND Jacoby Brissett 1.57000 4100 T.Y. Hilton 9.773250 4200
Zach Pascal 8.373250 4400
Trey Burton 7.451750 3100

Again, we’ll want to see which of these stacks is the most expensive, so we’ll graph the stacks projected points against their total salary. We’ll look for more value in our stacks, since they’re heavily correlated and are able to outperform their projections.